Too Much of a Good Thing

#21, August 18, 1999

 

A few weeks ago, following many years of deliberation, I decided to oppose the Rainier interchange. I attribute my long ambivalence to the pervasive misconceptions that have surrounded this project. In the next two columns, I'll explain what led to my decision.

 

What finally convinced me was learning that Rainier was an ephemeral traffic fix. According to the City's 1994 Environmental Impact Report, we'd be back in the cross town bumper cars less than a decade after we'd spent the 30-40-50 million bucks on Rainier. This is due to the additional vehicle trips which would be generated by the flood plain development needed to pay for a small fraction of the project.

 

But like some City Council members, my opposition runs deeper. It's not, as some have claimed, an "anti-automobile bias." I'm not anti-automobile anymore than I'm anti-television -- I own my share of both cars and TVs. But with driving, like with television viewing, there can be too much of a good thing. Consider these stats (see the Union of Concerned Scientists website for more, at www.ucsusa.org/transportation/):

 

·        Driving is deadly: each year, motor vehicle accidents in the US claim about 39,000 lives, and injure almost 5 million people, 300,000 of them severely. The cost, including medical expenses, property damage, and lost productivity: more than $350 billion, 8% of the GNP.

·        Driving is dirty: motor vehicles cause half of the U.S. air pollution. Annually, this takes 64,000 people to an early grave, and causes $2-3 billion in crop damage. UCS estimates worldwide global warming and pollution costs at $50-230 billion/year.

·        Driving is taxing: Federal, state, and local auto subsidies total at least $300 billion annually, averaging $1600 per vehicle. Driving and non-driving taxpayers foot the bill, which would add about $3 per gallon if paid at the pump.

·        Driving is a national security risk: In real dollars, the US price of gasoline was 10 cents per gallon lower in 1998 than in 1970. During that time frame, oil imports jumped from 28% to 48% of total oil consumption. We paid $60 billion to protect our imported oil sources in the Gulf War.

·        Driving is an US problem: with 4.7% of the world's population, we have 35% of the motor vehicles. Cars are used for 86% of all trips in the US, compared to 45% in most Western European countries.

·        Driving is on the rise: Per capita vehicle miles traveled (VMT) has increased from 3.9 miles per weekday in 1969 to 5.9 in 1990. Sonoma County residents, in 1990, were driving 17 miles per weekday, roughly three times the national average. And that rate is still climbing, jumping by seven percent between 1990 and 1995.

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I'd argue you don't need an anti-automobile bias, but rather common sense, to conclude that we're driving ourselves to ruin. A lesson we know well but rarely seem to heed is that new roads, combined with artificially low gas prices, induce more driving, putting more cars into the jam, more people in the hospital, and more toxics into our lungs.

 

Considering all this, shouldn't we steer clear of hugely expensive projects that both depend on and encourage more driving? Even if we discount the interests of the rest of the world and future generations, there's high likelihood that ecological or political crises in our lifetime will boost the price of gas by a dollar or two a gallon (comparable to the current price in Europe.) Then, like the fabled grasshopper, we will wish we had taken the ants' advice about how we should have spent our precious transportation dollars.

 

I don't think the people of Petaluma are that short-sighted. The Rainier plan rejected by the City Council was a gas guzzler from the past.  Now, with it off the road, the Council can focus on a series of smaller, faster, and cheaper solutions.  In my next column, I'll look at what we left behind, and what good things lie ahead.